The Great Convergence: Crypto, Capital Markets, and the Rise of on Chain AI

February 2026

Dear Investors,

Whilst the year has started with elevated volatility, we’d like to zoom out and share our thoughts about the longer-term themes that we observe and plan towards.

The past year was a tale of two stories. On the one hand, we witnessed the convergence of crypto and traditional markets, with more than eleven crypto IPOs in the US. On the other hand, we saw a divergence of fundamentals and price action within crypto. Whilst fundamentals held up steadily, price action was lagging. With these dynamics in place, we are looking forward to a more active 2026, where we will increasingly focus on identifying tactical opportunities across the capital stack, from crypto-native to equity instruments.

Executive Summary

The great convergence of crypto- and traditional capital markets

• In 2025, crypto IPOs raised approximately $14.6 billion across eleven companies, a significant increase from $300 million in 2024.

• Several large IPOs are anticipated in 2026 from firms like BitGo, Ledger, Bitpanda, and Kraken.

Altcoins are experiencing price stagnation, even as revenues remain stable or show growth

• Despite a decline in altcoin prices in 2025, fundamental metrics such as Ethereum transaction volumes and tokenized asset activities reached new highs.

• Stablecoin circulation surpassed $300 billion with trillions in daily settlement volume, and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms outperformed centralized exchanges, exemplified by Uniswap generating nearly $1 billion in fees during market stagnation.

AI Agents and crypto meet

• We highlight the introduction of EIP-8004, a new Ethereum Improvement Proposal that enables autonomous AI agents to register identities, build reputation, and validate tasks on-chain via lightweight registries. This standard facilitates programmable agent-to-agent interactions and the orchestration of complex workflows.

  
  

The great convergence of crypto- and traditional capital markets

2025 saw a breakout year for crypto IPOs, with eleven companies raising roughly $14.6B, up sharply from just $300M in 2024. Major listings like Circle and Bullish each surpassed $1B in proceeds, and Circle’s debut surged to a ~$78B valuation. Other notable offerings included Gemini Space Station’s $425M raise and American Bitcoin’s strong Nasdaq debut.

Looking to 2026, firms such as BitGo, Ledger, Bitpanda, and Kraken are lining up substantial IPOs, targeting multi‑billion‑dollar valuations.

We see this is part of the longer-term convergence between crypto markets and capital markets. With regulatory progress around the world, we expect that traditional market participants are warming up to crypto firms. This would be the first step before embracing more crypto-native investments down the road.

At the same time, we observe that whilst crypto-equity continuously received a bid, crypto assets themselves were quite muted throughout the year. We attribute this to the meteoric rise in 2023 and 2024. Despite the recent rally in equities and precious metals like Gold, Bitcoin is still outperforming over a 3-year time frame.

Figure 1- Source: @EricBalchunas from Bloomberg

Altcoins are experiencing price stagnation, even as revenues remain stable or show growth

Crypto markets in 2025 showed a clear disconnect: prices weakened while fundamentals strengthened. Ethereum’s price fell even as transactions hit new all‑time highs, and tokenized‑asset activity surged.

Stablecoin usage also grew massively, with over $300B in circulation and trillions in daily settlement volume, while networks like TRON posted record revenues despite flat token prices.

DeFi outperformed centralized exchanges, with DEX volumes exceeding major CEXs and Uniswap generating nearly $1B in fees amid market stagnation.

All the while, headline prices declined for most altcoins. Similar to above, we believe this is the result of profit taking, and more interest on the equity side of the crypto story by market participants. Additionally, many investors who were naturally drawn to crypto tech, have been focused on AI developments. That all said, we remain convinced by this technology at the secular trend level.

AI Agents and crypto meet

We have written before about the natural fit of crypto technology for AI agent workflows that involve verification and financial transactions. EIP‑8004 introduces a new on-chain trust framework that lets autonomous AI agents register identities, build reputation, and validate tasks directly on Ethereum through three lightweight registries: Identity, Reputation, and Validation. By issuing each agent an ERC‑721–based on‑chain identity, the standard enables portable, verifiable agent profiles that can operate across networks without centralized intermediaries. This unlocks a new layer of programmable agent-to-agent (A2A) interactions, allowing smart contracts to orchestrate complex workflows, trust models, and automation using feedback signals, zkML proofs, or validator checks as plug‑in trust mechanisms. As a result, EIP‑8004 lays the groundwork for a future where smart contracts can coordinate decentralized AI systems, execute richer logic based on agent behavior, and support more advanced autonomous applications across the Ethereum ecosystem.

This is a big step towards allowing more frictionless agent workflows that involve even financial transactions like “book me a flight”.

Interested investors who seek to invest at the edge of technological change are invited to reach out to us. We are happy to present how we are putting our insights into action to generate returns for investors, in particular in our actively-managed mandates.

If you would like to discuss any of our current market observations, please reach out to us via email.

info@matrixportam.com

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